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Current Conditions

Temp: 71.7°F
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Jefferson , NC

Forecast Last Updated at Wednesday, May 27, 2015 at 12:41PM

Various Shades of PM Convection

Summer weather arrived early this year. We are already in a classic summer-looking pattern with high pressure in the Western Atlantic extending into the Southeast, blocking fronts from the west. With the "summer package", we get muggy air pumped in from the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters will have day-to-day forecast battles to gauge afternoon and evening thundershower coverage. Most days will have rain "haves" and "have nots" and several hours of dry weather in between thundershowers. So we'll paint the forecast with shadings rather than distinct colors. For example, overall l think Wednesday will have less rain than Thursday and Friday--scattered to widely scattered coverage today. Welcome to summer!

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Hi: 75 Lo: 58

Partly to mostly cloudy; Scattered PM showers & t-showers; Light South wind

Hi: 76 Lo: 59

Partly to mostly cloudy; T-showers, mostly in the PM hours; Light & variable wind

Hi: 75 Lo: 58

Partly to mostly cloudy; PM t-showers; South wind 5-15 mph

Hi: 75 Lo: 60

Partly to mostly cloudy; Widely scattered PM t-showers

Hi: 75 Lo: 60

Partly to mostly cloudy; Scattered PM t-showers

Further Out

Monday - Mostly cloudy; T-showers, mostly in the PM hours; High in the lower 70s; Low in the upper 50s
Tuesday - Mostly cloudy; PM t-showers; High in the upper 60s; Low in the upper 50s

Forecast Discussion

It feels more like August than May... warm, muggy air. The current weather map supports that feeling. High pressure is anchored in the Western Atlantic and extends into the Southeast. Fronts are blocked from entering the Southeast and shunted off to the north. Warm, humid air is in place on a southerly flow out of the Gulf.

Otherwise minor weather features will have big impacts on how much rain we get on a given day. Showers and thundershowers Tuesday evening moved into the Piedmont giving us a drier morning with plenty of sun; however, daytime heating will produce scattered to widely scattered thundershowers this afternoon and evening.

Each day will have its own set of nuances that will control PM thundershower coverage. We think Thursday and Friday will have more thundershowers than today. Saturday looks slightly drier, Sunday slightly wetter.

A front will make it the Southern Appalachians Monday, stalling to our south and east. Details of exactly where it stalls will determine how much rain we get early next week. This forecast counts on a front stalled just to our south and east resulting in a less warm, more cloudy, but still muggy/rainy Monday and Tuesday. But we'll take no bets from 6-7 days away.


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