NWS Special Weather Statement (Ashe County)

Current Conditions
Jefferson

Temp: 58.5°F

Forecast Last Updated at Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 5:15PM

Not a Drop

We have near-perfect weather at least into Thursday. without a drop of rain Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above seasonal through this period. Nights are longer now; so, valleys will cool each night. That cooling with leftover moisture from our recent moist wedge combine for early morning fog Sunday. Otherwise, severely pleasant weather is the only weather thought through at least Thursday.

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Saturday Hi: 74 Lo: 52 Partly cloudy; Light NW wind

Sunday Hi: 74 Lo: 50 Mostly clear after early AM fog; Pleasant; Light NE wind becoming Easterly

Monday Hi: 75 Lo: 51 Clear skies; Warmer than seasonal averages; Light East wind

Tuesday Hi: 75 Lo: 52 Mostly sunny; Warm for early October

Wednesday Hi: 75 Lo: 50 Sunny & unseasonably warm for Oct.

Further Out

Thursday - Becoming partly cloudy, then even more clouds Thur. night; Continued pleasant; High in the mid 70s; Low in the lower 50s
Friday - Partly to mostly cloudy; Cannot completely rule out a stray light shower; High in the lower 70s; Low in the lower 50s

Forecast Discussion

We have transitioned from a cool wedge a couple days ago to an Omega Block pattern. The pattern is named for the resemblance of the upper-level wind flow and pressure gradient maps to the Greek letter Omega. There are upper level troughs in the Atlantic and Western U. S. with a warm ridge in between surging north to the Great Lakes.

Longer nights now allow for more cooling. That combined with leftover low level moisture produces valley fog Sunday morning. Otherwise we have unseasonably pleasant weather through Thursday. A little wind shift Sunday may keep temperatures down a degree or two--almost unnoticeable.

Nothing on ear lasts forever, and this pattern is no exception. By next weekend, the overall pattern transitions to a broad trough first in the Great Lakes and then into the Eastern U. S. Leading that transition at the surface will be two cold fronts: one arriving Friday night, the other Saturday night. Friday has more clouds, and I cannot completely rule out a stray shower especially along the western escarpment. Next Saturday is considerably cooler and breezy; the really cool air arrives next Sunday.

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