NWS Winter Storm Warning (Ashe County)

Current Conditions
Jefferson

Temp: 41.0°F

Forecast Last Updated at Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 8:14AM

Colder Today; Icy Sunday

Last night's front is well to our east. Expect a dry Saturday with a few breaks in the clouds, but temperatures will be colder than the May-like weather we have experienced in the last couple days.

High pressure wedges down the Appalachians today laying a bed of cold air at the surface, then warmer, moist air overruns the cold producing freezing rain late tonight into Sunday. Freezing rain will change to rain Sunday afternoon west near the TN/NC line and at higher elevations; however, freezing rain will linger well into Sunday night on the east side of the Appalachians especially near the Blue Ridge. Ice accumulations of 0.10" to 0.25" are likely for much the region but greater than .25" right along the Blue Ridge from Blowing Rock and to the northeast (Aho, Bamboo, Deep Gap, Phillips Gap, Laurel Springs, Roaring Gap, and into SW VA). The "Light Snowman-O-Mometer" is not for snow (there's almost none in the next 5 days), but for trouble related to icing Sunday.

Temperatures warm across the entire region Sunday night changing all precipitation to just rain. Rain will continue Monday.

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Saturday Hi: 42 Lo: 29 Breaks in the clouds today, but noticeably cooler; Freezing rain developing late tonight; NW wind 5-15 mph & breezy early, light in the afternoon, East 5-15 mph tonight

Sunday Hi: 31 Lo: 30 Cloudy; Freezing rain changing to rain from west to east (remaining icy along the Blue Ridge well into Sun. night); Rising temps Sun. night; SE wind 5-10 mph (except SW 15-25 mph & gusty up top)

Monday Hi: 50 Lo: 36 Cloudy; Rain showers; SW wind 5-15 mph (but gusting to 40 mph early AM at higher elev's)

Tuesday Hi: 38 Lo: 25 Clouds; Turning colder; Light rain changing to snow showers or flurries through early afternoon; Decreasing PM clouds

Wednesday Hi: 40 Lo: 23 Mostly clear; Chilly

Further Out

Thursday - Mostly clear; Not quite as cold, but cold; High in the mid 30s; Low in the lower 20s
Friday - Mostly clear start; Increasing PM clouds; Still rather cold; High in the upper 30s; Low in the mid 20s

Forecast Discussion

You'll have to read carefully to get the details, but the story-line has not changed in any significant way from the last several days.

Last night's front is well to our east today. Saturday is dry with lots of clouds but some breaks. Temperatures will be 20 degrees cooler than yesterday and headed even colder tonight. Skies become overcast again tonight.

Late tonight and Sunday, warm/moist air overruns cold air at the surface. Freezing rain will develop late tonight continuing into Sunday. Freezing rain will continue well into Sunday night in areas on the eastern edge of the Appalachians right along the Blue Ridge--more icing there. However, as one goes west and higher in elevation, freezing rain will change to just rain sooner (Sunday afternoon). To illustrate the difference across the mountain region, by Sunday evening, the mountaintops of Beech, Roan, and Mt Rogers will be 10-15 degrees WARMER than Roaring Gap (and other spots right along the Blue Ridge). Temperatures warm Sunday night changing all precipitation across the region to just rain. Expect damaging accumulations of ice right along the Blue Ridge from Blowing Rock and to the northeast right along the Blue Ridge, less damage as you go west and southwest.

A secondary front moves through late Monday night. Monday will be rainy with cool temperatures. Tuesday, computer guidance differs on the handling of a trailing disturbance. Differences involve both the timing of colder air returning and precipitation during the day Tuesday. The best thinking is light rain changing to snow showers and flurries with little or no accumulation; then decreasing clouds in the afternoon and Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Friday will be chilly with mostly clear skies until Friday afternoon when cloudiness increases with a disturbance approaching from the southwest.

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