Forecast Last Updated at Tuesday, August 19, 2008 at 6:30PM

Fay Blocked To Our South

We have made some big changes to the forecast for the rest of the week; it now appears that Fay will remain well to our south. See the forecast discussion below. Today was warm and dry around the High Country. Expect a tranquil overnight. Wednesday will be another dry day with seasonably warm temperatures. Thursday through Saturday, we'll have more clouds and the chance of a stray shower-a result of a moist flow off the Atlantic with Fay blocked to our south by high pressure anchored in New England.

Voting in the 2009 Ray's Weather Center Calendar Photo Contest is going fast and furious. Many of you have commented that this is by far the strongest set of photo ever for this contest. We agree. Please go to 2009 Ray's Weather Center Calendar Photo Contest page and vote for your favorite photos. Voting will end August 20 and winners will be announced by September 1.

Tuesday Hi: 83 Lo: 57 Scattered clouds; Wind becoming light easterly

Wednesday Hi: 81 Lo: 57 Daytime sun, more clouds at night; Pleasant; ESE wind 5-10 mph

Thursday Hi: 78 Lo: 59 More clouds; Chance of a stray shower; SE wind 5-15 mph

Friday Hi: 76 Lo: 59 Mostly cloudy; Chance of a stray shower

Saturday Hi: 77 Lo: 59 Mostly cloudy; Chance of a stray shower

Further Out

Sunday - Partly cloudy; Chance of a stray shower; High in the upper 70s; Low near 60 degrees
Monday - More clouds; Scattered mostly PM t-showers; High in the upper 70s; Low near 60 degrees

Forecast Discussion

Fay dominates weather news and forecasts; so, we'll address it first--a significant change from yesterday's forecast. Increasing evidence supports a track well to our south. High pressure will build into the NE US pressing into our area and blocking Fay's path to the north.

Tropical Storm Fay made landfall very early Tuesday morning near Cape Romano, Florida. Fay actually strengthened slightly today over land and was centered just north of Lake Okeechobee early this evening. Fay is expected to move NNE through central Florida tonight and back into the Atlantic early Wednesday, possibly reaching hurricane strength. What happens next will have a huge impact on our weather down the road. At this point in time, Fay's ability to move northward toward our area appears to be largely blocked by a large dome of high pressure aloft over the Mid-Atlantic states. Fay will probably be forced westward through south Georgia. How far north Fay ultimately gets will determine the northern extent of the rain shield. There will be an increasing fetch of wind off the Atlantic Ocean, starting on Wednesday. This maritime influence in and of itself will be enough to substantially increase our cloudiness by the end of the week. With any luck, we'll pick up some rainfall from the moist, upslope flow. Depending on how effectively Fay gets blocked from moving north, the storm may not provide the kind of significant drought relief that it potentially could have. It's simply too soon to be sure, since Fay or the remnants of Fay will be around for days to come.

Meanwhile back at the ranch... Today was a warm but pleasant August day in the High Country. Tonight will be on the tranquil side with temperatures similar to last night. Beginning Wednesday, high pressure located in New England will begin wedging southward into the Appalachians. By Thursday, we can expect increased humidity and more clouds as a result of southeasterly maritime flow (an indirect effect from Fay). So, we have painted Thursday through Sunday with more clouds and the chance of a stray shower. Fog will also be a possibility along the eastern escarpment of the Appalachians.

By late Sunday, Fay could be absorbed into a front located from the Great Lakes to the Mississippi River Valley. That front will move our way early next week increasing thundershower chances.

Announcements

RaysWeather.Com continues to grow. We are an "information age" company using the web to broadcast the message but also as a tool for producing the message. RaysWeather.Com (what we call RWC) has evolved from "Ray's hobby in Beautiful Downtown Rutherwood" in 1999 to the most widely read media outlet in NW NC reaching 150,000 to 200,000 people per month and covering the weather from NC/VA line to Asheville and Wolf Laurel. We will continue to grow geographically as well--Roaring Gap and Waynesville were recently added; Black Mountain will be up and running very soon. The heart of the growth is good data, "local flavor", and THE most reliable forecast.

We recently added our 6th forecaster to the best forecast team ever assembled for this region. It's time for us to introduce "the crew"...

• Dr. Ray Russell is a Computer Science professor at Appalachian State University. His PhD is in Computer Science from Georgia Tech (1989); weather has been a long-time passion. He started posting a "snow forecast" on the university website back in the mid 1990's; this evolved into RaysWeather.Com in 2000. Ray lives in Boone and has taught at Appalachian State since 1991.
• Eric Anderson (RWC's Chief Meteorologist) received his degree in meteorology from the University of North Carolina at Asheville, and is a 15-year veteran of NOAA with experience in forecasting, observation and analysis. A native of western North Carolina, Eric's former tenure in the National Weather Service gave him the opportunity to forecast for areas of the Mid-Atlantic region. His professional interests include upslope flow snow events in the southern Appalachians, as well as cold air damming in the Carolinas.
• Alan Simons, born in Fayetteville NC, has a Bachelor of Science in meteorology and almost 20 years of professional experience that includes forecasting for newspapers, websites, radio, aviation, and the military. He first became interested in weather in North Carolina, and RWC takes him back home after a variety of duty stations, from New York to Hawaii. Alan's been with the RWC team since 2003.
• Tim Kirby joined Ray's Weather Center in October 2004 and lives in his hometown of Fries, VA (pronounced Freeze). The folks from this small Grayson County town say "it's freeze in winter and fries in summer". He has a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology from NC State University. While at NC State, he was president of the NCSU Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society. Before joining RWC, Tim worked for the National Weather Service for ten years in Raleigh, Chattanooga and Morristown, Tennessee. Tim has always loved the challenge of forecasting and owes his dedication to a childhood fascination of snow (no school!).
• Harold Alston is a N.C. native with Bachelor of Science degrees from both App State (Broadcast Communications) and UNC-Asheville (Meteorology). He has 30 years experience tracking and forecasting NC weather including 15 years experience for media outlets. Nailing down Appalachian wedges & wintry possibilities are his areas of expertise with a lifetime of N.C. weather experiences to reference.
• Jeff Cox, a native of Asheville, is the latest addition to the RWC team. He earned a Bachelor of Sciences in Atmospheric Sciences from UNC-Asheville. At UNC-A, he was the lead forecaster for the school's Weather Forecast Line, campus Radio Station, "The Blue Echo" and the campus newspaper, "The Blue Banner." Jeff has experience as a meteorologist in both television and radio. He spent over 2 years in Macon, GA, as the chief meteorologist at WGXA FOX-24. He also has experience as a radio broadcast meteorologist for The Weather Channel in Atlanta, Georgia.