Forecast Last Updated at Thursday, May 17, 2012 at 5:34PM

Watch the Back Door

We escaped the rain yesterday (in spite of lightning flashing Wednesday evening to our east in the Foothills) and most have escaped the rain today. There is still a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm this evening and tonight as a back door front (from the north) moves through. Most will stay dry on Friday, but a stray shower or t-shower can't be ruled out in the afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler Friday and Saturday as drier air noses its way south out of New England. Hopefully we can hold on for a dry Saturday.

Thursday Hi: 75 Lo: 51 A few showers and thunderstorms possible this evening, then becoming partly cloudy; Light SE wind

Friday Hi: 72 Lo: 47 Partly cloudy; A stray afternoon shower or t-shower possible; SE wind 5-10 mph

Saturday Hi: 72 Lo: 46 Lots of sunshine; Pleasant May temperatures; Light SE wind

Sunday Hi: 72 Lo: 49 More PM clouds; Cannot rule out a PM shower

Monday Hi: 73 Lo: 51 Mostly to partly cloudy; Cannot rule out showers

Further Out

Tuesday - Increasing PM clouds; Scattered PM showers & t-showers; High in the mid 70s; Low in the lower 50s
Wednesday - Partly to mostly cloudy; Scattered PM showers & t-showers; High in the mid 70s; Low in the lower 50s

Forecast Discussion

A backdoor front from the north will slide through North Carolina tonight. As this happens, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening and maybe even overnight. Otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy with lows around 50.

Drier air behind the front associated with high pressure centered in New England will nose southward between the Appalachians and Coastal regions. It will reduce afternoon thundershower coverage to "isolated" and probably give us a dry Saturday. Temperatures both days will be pleasant, a couple degrees cooler than today.

Remnants of the front that moved through here Monday are now stalled just off the Atlantic Seaboard from New England to Georgia. It will be the breading ground for lows for the next 6-7 days. Exactly when/where these lows will develop is unknowable at this point. In particular, there's much question about a weak area of low pressure that will develop Saturday and move north early next week. Will it be far enough inland to affect our weather? Don't know, but we have to include that in the realm of possibility this morning. Thus the "cannot rule out" wording for showers Sunday afternoon into Monday. Also, if the low stays well to our east, then we'll have more sun and warmer temperatures than depicted above.

By Tuesday, we'll be in a warmer, southerly flow as the next front approaches from west in a weakened form. Scattered mostly PM showers and thundershowers are expected.

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