Winter Weather Advisory - Ashe (North Carolina)

Current Conditions
Warrensville

Temp: 32.7°F

Forecast Last Updated at Monday, February 8, 2010 at 3:44PM

Fifth Major Winter Storm on the Doorstep

It's a different type of storm headed our way (a "white front" Tuesday followed by a strong northwest flow event Wednesday). At higher elevations along the TN/NC line, Tuesday and Wednesday may produce the biggest accumulations of the winter thus far. All of us will have significant accumulations both Tuesday and Wednesday. Details regarding accumulations are in the Discussion Section below.
Expect a chilly Monday with increasing clouds this afternoon and evening. Light snow will begin around or after midnight. Snow will continue Tuesday (some rain below 3000' for a while tomorrow cutting into snow totals there). Much colder air arrives Tuesday night. Wednesday will be just plain nasty; "blizzard" is an accurate description of what to expect--winds gusting over 60 mph, bitter cold and snow squalls. Snow showers and flurries will end early Thursday but cold will last through the week.

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Monday Hi: 37 Lo: 27 Thickening clouds; Light snow late tonight; Light wind becoming South 5-15 mph

Tuesday Hi: 33 Lo: 9 Cloudy; Snow (mixing with rain below 3000', maybe some sleet below 3500'); Turning sharply colder at night; SE wind 5-10 mph becoming WNW 20-30 mph with gusts to 55 mph after midnight

Wednesday Hi: 19 Lo: 10 Cloudy, big wind & cold; Snow showers & snow squalls; NW wind 20-30 mph with gusts to 55 mph becoming 30-40 mph at night with gusts to 70 mph

Thursday Hi: 27 Lo: 16 Early flurries; Then partly cloudy; Blustery and Cold

Friday Hi: 30 Lo: 17 Sunny with some high clouds increasing; Watching the Gulf

Further Out

Saturday - Partly cloudy; Cold; Snow showers or flurries possible at night; High in the upper 20s; Low in the mid teens
Sunday - Mostly cloudy; Cold; Snow showers & flurries; High in the upper 20s; Low in the mid teens

Forecast Discussion

An El Nino storm system is moving today from Texas to the Mississippi River Valley. Additionally, arctic air is driving from the Northern Rockies southeast to the Ohio Valley tomorrow. This one-two punch will bring snow late tonight through Tuesday (mixing with rain below 3000', some sleet possible below 3500'), sharply falling temperatures Tuesday night, then bitterly cold weather Wednesday with snow showers and snow squalls--blizzard conditions. Cold weather will dominate the week. The following El Nino system will be farther south, sharing "the love" with the northern half of the Gulf Coast States into Georgia and South Carolina. It's still uncertain as to whether moisture from this system will make this far north.

The daily details...
Today... Morning sun will give way to afternoon and evening clouds. Light snow will arrive after midnight. We'll wake up to an inch or less of snow Tuesday morning.
Tuesday... Snow. Below 3000', precipitation will transition to rain (some freezing rain east near the Blue Ridge) holding accumulations to 1"-3". Above 3000', it appears to be generally a snow event Tuesday (maybe some sleet mixed in below 3500'). Accumulations will be elevation dependent--2"-5" for 3000' to 4000' elevations and 4"-7" above 4000'. Sharply colder air will arrive Tuesday night with wind-blown snow showers overtaking the entire region.
Wednesday... Expect bitterly cold temperatures, awful NW winds (gusting 60 mph or greater), and snow squalls. Additional accumulations will be in the 2" (east) to 8" (higher elevations west) range. Most of the cities will be in the 3"-4" range ( a bit more for Banner Elk, Bakersville, and Elk Park).
Thursday will be cold with morning flurries then decreasing clouds.
Friday through Sunday... Cold weather will continue as we watch that next low to our south. Light snow is not out of the question Friday and Friday night, but it is out of the forecast for now. Wrap around snow showers and snow flurries in the wake of this system will develop Saturday night into Sunday.

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