High Wind Warning - Ashe (North Carolina)

Current Conditions
W. Jefferson

Temp: 47.1°F

Forecast Last Updated at Sunday, May 11, 2008 at 6:20PM

Mother Nature Making Things Interesting

A strong cold front for this time of year will move through the High Country tonight bringing unseasonably chilly air through Monday. Showers are likely tonight along with increasingly windy conditions. You will notice the chilly in the air on Monday along with blustery conditions for the start of the new work week. Milder temperatures return beginning Tuesday.

Sunday Hi: 63 Lo: 41 Showers likely this evening (thunder possible) and overnight; Turning much cooler; WNW wind increasing to 25-35 mph with gusts to 50+ mph after midnight

Monday Hi: 49 Lo: 38 Noticeable lack of sun; Well below average; Drizzle/mist likely; Windy; NW wind 25-35 mph with gusts over 60 mph possible

Tuesday Hi: 65 Lo: 44 Sunshine returns; Winds begin to calm; Temperatures much warmer, but still below average; North winds 5-15 mph

Wednesday Hi: 68 Lo: 51 Partly cloudy; An afternoon/evening shower or storm is possible.

Thursday Hi: 70 Lo: 54 Mostly cloudy; Showers and T-Showers likely by the afternoon.

Further Out

Friday - More clouds than sun; Scattered showers likely through the day; High in the upper 60s; Low in the upper 40s
Saturday - Mostly cloudy; A chance for showers; High in the upper 60s; Low in the upper 40s

Forecast Discussion

An extremely complex weather pattern will dominate the eastern third of the nation, including all of the RWC forecast area, as we round out the weekend.

A large area of heavy rain and thunderstorms moved a bit further south than originally thought, bringing copious amounts of rainfall for folks in the upstate of SC, NE GA, and points southward. This is the same system that was responsible for over 300 preliminary storm reports on Saturday from the Midwest east to the coast of SC.

Locally, a stalled front in SC will move northward through the day as a warm front. A second front will push through later today providing the opportunity for another round of showers and possible thunderstorms. This front will push in from the west, first impacting the Asheville area followed by the FH and HC later this evening.

All of this "mess" is complicated by the fact that we have a weak cold air damming situation set up across the region. This has forced a cool pool of air at the surface while warmer temperatures will move in from the south aloft in the atmosphere. This would provide the opportunity for some thunder as our warm front moves in from the south.

Temperatures are going to hold fairly steady for much of the region through the day until our warm front moves in from the south. As it lifts northward, expect warmer air to accompany it, surging our temperatures quickly upward this afternoon, before our cold front comes in from the west with its accompanying showers and storms.

Folks...that's not all - believe it or not - it's what will be behind the front that will be the bigger story! Extremely blustery conditions and much colder temperatures!

Our cold front will push through the region tonight, forcing a strong northwest flow behind the front for the day on Monday. Strong winds will be developing later tonight in the mountains, with wind gusts in the HC expected to top 60 mph! Add to it the high probability of overcast skies and a pesky drizzle and what you'll have is a raw, downright uncomfortable Monday. The place to escape the drizzle and thick cloud deck will be the foothills, but for them, it will be cooler as well, but not as cool.

Just how cold are we talking? In the highest elevations, some folks may not get out of the 30s on Monday, after some thermometers might dip below the freezing mark Monday morning in the in higher terrains along the TN/NC border. South and east towards the FH, it won't be quiet as cold, but still chilly for this time of year.

Fortunately, this is a short lived cold blast. Temperatures begin to warm Tuesday, but look to remain close to or below average for several days to come. Next chance of rain will arrive Wednesday afternoon in the form of scattered showers followed by the chance for more widespread rains Thursday and Friday.

Announcements

RaysWeather.Com continues to grow. We are an "information age" company using the web to broadcast the message but also as a tool for producing the message. RaysWeather.Com (what we call RWC) has evolved from "Ray's hobby in Beautiful Downtown Rutherwood" in 1999 to the most widely read media outlet in NW NC reaching 150,000 to 200,000 people per month and covering the weather from NC/VA line to Asheville and Wolf Laurel. We will continue to grow geographically as well--Roaring Gap has just been added; Waynesville, you're next. The heart of the growth is good data, "local flavor", and THE most reliable forecast.

We recently added our 6th forecaster to the best forecast team ever assembled for this region. It's time for us to introduce "the crew"...

• Dr. Ray Russell is a Computer Science professor at Appalachian State University. His PhD is in Computer Science from Georgia Tech (1989); weather has been a long-time passion. He started posting a "snow forecast" on the university website back in the mid 1990's; this evolved into RaysWeather.Com in 2000. Ray lives in Boone and has taught at Appalachian State since 1991.
• Eric Anderson (RWC's Chief Meteorologist) received his degree in meteorology from the University of North Carolina at Asheville, and is a 15-year veteran of NOAA with experience in forecasting, observation and analysis. A native of western North Carolina, Eric's former tenure in the National Weather Service gave him the opportunity to forecast for areas of the Mid-Atlantic region. His professional interests include upslope flow snow events in the southern Appalachians, as well as cold air damming in the Carolinas.
• Alan Simons, born in Fayetteville NC, has a Bachelor of Science in meteorology and almost 20 years of professional experience that includes forecasting for newspapers, websites, radio, aviation, and the military. He first became interested in weather in North Carolina, and RWC takes him back home after a variety of duty stations, from New York to Hawaii. Alan's been with the RWC team since 2003.
• Tim Kirby joined Ray's Weather Center in October 2004 and lives in his hometown of Fries, VA (pronounced Freeze). The folks from this small Grayson County town say "it's freeze in winter and fries in summer". He has a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology from NC State University. While at NC State, he was president of the NCSU Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society. Before joining RWC, Tim worked for the National Weather Service for ten years in Raleigh, Chattanooga and Morristown, Tennessee. Tim has always loved the challenge of forecasting and owes his dedication to a childhood fascination of snow (no school!).
• Harold Alston is a N.C. native with Bachelor of Science degrees from both App State (Broadcast Communications) and UNC-Asheville (Meteorology). He has 30 years experience tracking and forecasting NC weather including 15 years experience for media outlets. Nailing down Appalachian wedges & wintry possibilities are his areas of expertise with a lifetime of N.C. weather experiences to reference.
• Jeff Cox, a native of Asheville, is the latest addition to the RWC team. He earned a Bachelor of Sciences in Atmospheric Sciences from UNC-Asheville. At UNC-A, he was the lead forecaster for the school's Weather Forecast Line, campus Radio Station, "The Blue Echo" and the campus newspaper, "The Blue Banner." Jeff has experience as a meteorologist in both television and radio. He spent over 2 years in Macon, GA, as the chief meteorologist at WGXA FOX-24. He also has experience as a radio broadcast meteorologist for The Weather Channel in Atlanta, Georgia.

So now you know who's behind the forecast. It's not magic--just lots of hard work by many people. In addition to meteorology, keeping RWC going requires office mangement, programming, computer system's administration, ad sales, and graphic design. We'll introduce you to the rest of the team soon.